The overall size of the economy is expected to hit precrisis levels by the fourth quarter of next year. But the country’s labor market will not reach pre-pandemic levels until 2024, according to S&P Global.
▪ The official unemployment rate has dropped from a peak of 14.7 percent in April to 7.9 percent in September, an unexpectedly quick recovery, but still miles away from the 3.5 percent low before the crisis.
▪ The S&P Global forecasts assumed that Congress would approve an additional $500 billion in COVID-19 relief – but the recovery could be in jeopardy without this economic stimulus. “The risk is of course that it would be in negative territory,” said S&P Global U.S. Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino.
▪ The Congress and the White House are currently talking about a much larger fiscal response of $1.8 trillion. However, the chances of such a package passing soon appear increasingly slim. The fate of the stimulus could also vary dramatically based on the election results.