Employment Will Not Bounce Back Until 2024

The overall size of the economy is expected to hit precrisis levels by the fourth quarter of next year. But the country’s labor market will not reach pre-pandemic levels until 2024, according to S&P Global.


▪ The official unemployment rate has dropped from a peak of 14.7 percent in April to 7.9 percent in September, an unexpectedly quick recovery, but still miles away from the 3.5 percent low before the crisis.

▪ The S&P Global forecasts assumed that Congress would approve an additional $500 billion in COVID-19 relief – but the recovery could be in jeopardy without this economic stimulus. “The risk is of course that it would be in negative territory,” said S&P Global U.S. Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino.

▪ The Congress and the White House are currently talking about a much larger fiscal response of $1.8 trillion. However, the chances of such a package passing soon appear increasingly slim. The fate of the stimulus could also vary dramatically based on the election results.



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